Research: Crowd Science
Understanding and predicting the dynamics which affect crowd behaviour at public events.
Research summary
Research summary
Crowd science is an emerging field of research, which focuses on crowd safety issues in congested places and the implementation of analytic tools in characterising crowd dynamics.
Researchers analyse multiple factors which affect the dynamics of crowd behaviour during an event, including start times, entrance points, speed of movement and surface capacity. This data is combined with knowledge from behavioural science and other fields, to inform a holistic approach.
Researchers from Manchester Met have worked with the organisers of many major events, including marathons, festivals and public celebrations, to predict crowd behaviour and inform safety procedures.
Marcel Altenburg, Senior Lecturer in Crowd Science, created an algorithm called Start Right to model and predict crowd behaviour during marathons. The model makes 8.6million calculations to estimate the volume of people at any particular geographical point. It can take into account tweaks to any variable in order to forecast the impact down the road on the runners.
For example, race organisers can suggest hypothetical adjustments to the course route, start timings, entrant numbers, facilities placement and staff levels, and then see what the consequences would be – something that would be impossible to experiment with in reality, given the scale of the events.
Having the power to accurately predict the way a race develops enables marathon management to streamline operations with regard to:
- course width
- road closures
- staffing levels
- water stations
- mid-race changes
- television coverage
- managing flows at junctions and merger points
- the deployment of emergency services
This modelling can even help event managers to respond to events such as bomb threats in real time, giving precise information on crowd density and timescales, which will help police and security to resolve the issue with the least risk to participants.
Researchers believe that crowd science will be crucial in future for the service industry as it recovers from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Testimonial
I appreciate Marcel and Manchester Metropolitan University’s devotion to our sport and in particular our events that we produce at Chicago Event Management. They are doing some amazing work and helping improve our sport and respective events with their involvement, passion and innovations.
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