Football is back – but could empty stadiums turn results on their head?
Home advantage could disappear for football teams when the Premier League returns tonight as games now take place in empty stadiums.
The roar of the crowd is often said to give ‘home advantage’ and is backed by statistics that show teams generally have better results at their home stadium.
Coronavirus restrictions means teams now have to play behind closed doors for safety reasons. The Premier League, England’s top division, returns tonight (June 17) after a 100-day hiatus.
Manchester Metropolitan psychologist Professor Marc Jones has studied the phenomenon of the effect the crowd can have on sports teams – whether fans are chanting for players or against them.
Germany’s top tier football league, the Bundesliga, has been back playing in empty stadia for several weeks and has already produced some interesting insight on home advantage.
The crowd can also impact referees and officials, a popular claim from football fans who suggest some refereeing decisions are given because of the pressure and persuasion of tens of thousands of home fans.
Referee!
Prof Jones said: “When professional sport returns, games will be played in empty stadia. This may be particularly interesting from a ‘home advantage’ perspective.
“Typically, teams have better results at home compared to away. One factor thought to contribute to this is the crowd. In particular, the presence of a noisy, partisan home crowd is thought to affect the decision-making of officials.
“Our research, and that of others, suggests that officials will typically favour the home team. This is one of the biggest factors that contributes to the home advantage. What we have now is a natural experiment played out across many of the top leagues in the world, where we can see if we have similar levels of home advantage when a crowd is removed.”
Prof Jones will also be closely watching how the players react to the quietness of the Premier League’s football grounds.
Research has shown that some players have a positive response to the roar of the crowd, injecting energy and confidence into their game. But for some players this noise can have the opposite effect, causing them to underperform and ‘go missing’ in the game.
Bundesliga
Prof Jones added: “A recent article by Reuters highlighted that in the Bundesliga the home advantage had disappeared in the games played without fans, with just 12 home wins compared to 28 away wins out of 56 games in total.
“What was interesting in this article is that the data produced by Gracenote showed that without the fans, the home team were being penalised more frequently.
“Interestingly the data also suggest that players may be affected as well with less ‘attacking play’ by the home team - fewer shots, fewer dribbles - but more passes suggesting the absence of a vociferous supportive crowd may be changing the way the home team are playing.”
The return of the Premier League season will feature 92 league games packed into 40 days before the season concludes on 26 July, with Liverpool FC chasing their first league title in 30 years.
